sábado, 26 de noviembre de 2011
“Social re- islamization” and “the Iranian threat” as Israel´s containment strategies against Arab Spring (English version)
Despite of we are living an important moment in the Middle East that covers sensitive topics like the jure achievement of the Palestinian state in the United Nations, the future of democracy in Egypt and a series of pending demands in several peoples from Yemen, Syria, Bahrain, Iraq and others, the IAEA has surprised mass media with the last report on Iranian nuclear issue where highlights the “concern” about the use of explosives and some military activities in the nuclear programme. Given this, Israel has responded with a threatening rhetoric in order to push the U.S and other western countries to attack Iran or, at least, to activate tougher sanctions to the political, economical and military elite, the Pasdaran.
But so much eloquence confuses. Once again, those interested in opening this rhetorical political marketing, primarily AIPAC leaders, seem determined to spread a series of ideas that make no sense and just deflect international public opinion from real interest issues in the Arab region, this is, envisioning democratic governments in the Middle East (as Egyptian people is trying to do in Tahrir right now), ending corruption and repression in the streets, winning civil rights to express freedom and justice and remaining independent of any American, Russian, Iranian or Israeli interference in internal affairs of Arab Countries.
In this sense, the only thing in the mind of Israel government is to remain as the only “democratic state of The Middle East” with base on its “ethnocracy”, something as absurd and impossible, and at the same time to avoid this democratic wave in Arab world through the invention of two common enemies between Arabs called: Iran and Islamism.
The arrival of a new generation of Islamist parties, which can be called “Demo-Islamist Parties” (in position with the existence of Christian Democratic Parties in Europe and away from the conservative vision of Khamenei or Saudi Islam), is ready to enter into the democratic game and to replace authoritarian regimes as we could see in the Tunisian and Morocco elections cases. This wave is conceived as a threat by Israel and other political actors like the U.S and Saudi Arabia that will seek a type of re islamization in Arab society in order to use radical Islam to convince Egyptian, Libyan, Yemeni and other peoples that “the end of authoritarian governments is at the same time the end of the guarantors of stability and security people against radicals”. So, a new wave of insecurity, barbarism and terrorism would be coming back to streets in order, on one hand, to force people to condemn the “fake face of new Islam Parties” and, on the other, to persuade people to make no more changes, protest and revolts.
This re islamization attempts to connect “distortion of Islam” and Islamist parties in coming months. This strategy, with Israel and Saudi Arabia financial support, would be a spearhead for discredit the current Arab Spring process making a stronger determinism against new Islamist candidates as well as generating fear between religious minorities in the case that they support the revolts and democratic process. This responds to the recent attacks on some Coptic churches in Egypt which, according to several versions of young activist in situ, have been the work of former Mubarak´s government, Saudi Arabia, Israel or United States. The fact is that the perpetrator can be any of them.
Moreover, there is another and more complicated strategy in this game called Iran. The current rhetoric in Israel is related with a possible military intervention against Iran nuclear facilities that would ignite the whole region and attract the attention of international community clouding the Arab Spring. But, it must be noted that, although things are developing as in pre invasive Iraq in 2003 (sanctions, suspects and deterrence policy), Iran is not Iraq and the U.S are not the U.S of 2003. This is said because Israel cannot launch a military strike against Iran without warning and support (at least moral support) of the U.S. Otherwise, an Israeli attack would have strategy effects in the Iraq´s scenario where American troops would need to postpone the departure announced later this year in order to avoid Pasdaran influence in the risky border between Iran and Iraq, something not expected by new Iraq´s government.
Although the Syrian regime is disable to provide logistical and intelligence support to Iranian regime as he had promised some years ago, the current situation indicates that Israel cannot attack Iran unilaterally and automatically because an attack in the coming months has to involucrate, at least, some Arab Gulf countries which, with a particular style in the case of “Saudi Arabia´s Pasdaran -Mexican gangsters Plot”, have been supporting the construction of an Iranian threat. As Russian say, attack Iran would be a mistake not only for strategic difficulties but also because this work will not undermine what Israel, Saudi Arabia and the U.S want to undermine, this is, the democratic wave in the region, issue that is more dangerous to Israel that Iran´s nuclear program.
These two strategies, the internal fear of re islamization and the external fear of the Iranian threat, will try to blur the racist role of Israel in the Palestinian conflict, to avoid the collapse of authoritarian governments in the Gulf zone mainly Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and to rebuild, if that is possible, the U.S image in the Middle East through of two fashion freaks: Islamism and Iran.
Finally, it should be added that despite of Iran also has internal demands that must listen to, especially after 2009 demonstrations in Tehran, Islamic Republic is becoming the main beneficiary of this rhetoric. Firstly, because Khamenei regime blames external Powers of internal problems, secondly because Iran justifies the need to defend itself against military threats and finally because can achieve social cohesion that can undermine the current green discontent.